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May 1, 2008updated 13 Apr 2017 8:59am

Male life expectancy in the UK is grossly underestimated

Male life expectancy in the UK is grossly underestimated A new model for forecasting UK mortality rates, formulated by a group of academics headed by David Blake, director of the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School, has revealed that British men could live significantly longer than currently predicted According to the model, which is based on an analysis of mortality data for 65-year-old males, males reaching 65 in 2050 would on average live for another 26 years, six years more than currently predicted (on the basis of Office for National Statistics data), with to 90 percent statistical confidence an upper bound of likely life expectancy of 32 years, which is 12 years more than at present

By LII editorial

Male life expectancy in the UK is grossly underestimated

A new model for forecasting UK mortality rates, formulated by a group of academics headed by David Blake, director of the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School, has revealed that British men could live significantly longer than currently predicted.

“We know that people are living for longer, but this model demonstrates that longevity is accelerating far beyond what is currently predicted and that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding future life expectancy,” said Blake.

According to the model, which is based on an analysis of mortality data for 65-year-old males, males reaching 65 in 2050 would on average live for another 26 years, six years more than currently predicted (on the basis of Office for National Statistics data), with to 90 percent statistical confidence an upper bound of likely life expectancy of 32 years, which is 12 years more than at present.

“This will present a huge challenge for long-term health care providers and intensifies the problems faced by both government and the UK pensions industry,” warned Blake. “Providers need to urgently update the projection models they use before the pensions deficits reach catastrophic proportions.”

If the model’s projection is accurate, the government and pension funds would have to pay out as much as £160,368 ($330, 400) more per person. This based on an annual pension of £13,364 paid out for an additional 12 years.

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